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Open Biology

The Royal Society

Preprints posted in the last 7 days, ranked by how well they match Open Biology's content profile, based on 95 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.08% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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The Verification Gap: Artificial Intelligence Adoption, Hallucination Awareness, and Verification Practices Among Early Career Medical Researchers in Pakistan

Sajjad, M.

2026-05-30 health informatics 10.64898/2026.05.28.26354373 medRxiv
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Artificial intelligence (AI) tools have been rapidly adopted by medical researchers, yet whether early career researchers in low and middle income countries possess the awareness and habits needed to use these tools safely remains poorly documented. This study characterized AI adoption patterns, hallucination awareness, and verification and disclosure practices among early career medical researchers in Pakistan. A cross sectional anonymous online survey was conducted among medical students, house officers, residents, physicians, and faculty involved in research or academic work across Pakistan (May 2026). Descriptive statistics and chi square tests were applied to 373 eligible responses. AI use was near universal (99.7%), with 60.3% using AI tools daily. The most commonly reported tool in this sample was Claude (40.5%), followed by ChatGPT (29.2%) and Perplexity (26.0%), though this ranking likely reflects sampling characteristics. Despite high adoption, 59.2% typically did not verify AI outputs before use, and 40.2% had never heard that AI can generate fabricated scientific references. In behavioral vignettes, 36.5% assumed convincing AI generated references were authentic, and 54.2% would continue using remaining AI content after discovering one fabricated reference. Formal research training was strongly associated with consistent disclosure (51.7% vs. 17.1%; chi square=48.43, p less than 0.001). Role, daily use frequency, and research training were not significantly associated with verification behavior. Early career medical researchers in Pakistan demonstrate high AI adoption alongside incomplete hallucination awareness and infrequent verification, a pattern that may carry implications for research integrity. Formal training was the only factor significantly associated with consistent disclosure. Integration of AI literacy into medical curricula and institutional governance frameworks merits consideration.

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Changes in the profile of adults diagnosed as autistic since 2010: population based studies in England and Sweden

Sadik, A.; Lundberg, M.; Khandaker, G. M.; Pardinas, A. F.; Lee, B. K.; Madley-Dowd, P.; Magnusson, C.; Rai, D.

2026-05-28 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.05.20.26353486 medRxiv
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Objective: To understand if sociodemographic and neuropsychiatric characteristics of people diagnosed with autism in the United Kingdom (UK) and Sweden have changed since 2010. Design: Cross-context population-based cohort studies. Setting: UK primary care records from 2010-2023 and Swedish population-wide register linkages from 2010-2021 Participants: 24,537,039 individuals age 16 or over, registered with general practices in the UK, including 141,119 with an autism diagnosis. 9,096,874 people age 16 or over in the Swedish Total Population Register, including over 100,817 with an autism diagnosis. Main outcome measures: Annual age-standardised incidence and prevalence of adult autism diagnoses within different sociodemographic groups. Annual age-standardised proportion of adults with new autism diagnoses, lifetime autism diagnoses, and no autism diagnoses, with prior records of other neuropsychiatric conditions or medications. Results: Incident adult autism diagnoses were consistently higher in Sweden than the UK, however incidence increased rapidly in the UK after 2020. Incident diagnoses increased fastest for 16-25-year-olds and females in both nations, as well as people in White ethnic groups in the UK and people with Swedish-born parents in Sweden. For example, in the UK in 2023 the age-standardised incidence of autism diagnoses among 16-65 years olds was 11 diagnoses per 10,000 person-years (95%CI: 10.7, 11.3) in the White ethnic group and 2.2 diagnoses per 10,000 person-years (95%CI: 1.9, 2.5) in the South Asian ethnic group. Over time there has been a consistent decline in the proportion of autistic adults with a prior diagnosis of epilepsy, psychosis and intellectual disability and an increase in the proportion with a prior diagnosis of ADHD, anxiety, depression and several other mental illnesses. For example, in the UK between 2010 and 2023 the age-standardised proportions of newly diagnosed autistic adults with prior records of epilepsy decreased from 10% (95%CI: 7.6, 13) to 4% (95%CI: 3.6, 4.5), while the proportion with records of anxiety increased from 28.7% (95%CI: 24.4, 33.6) to 58.3% (95%CI: 56.6, 60.1). Mental health conditions were generally more common in females and the reduction over time in intellectual disability was greater in females than males. Conclusions: The socio-demographic and neuro-psychiatric characteristics of individuals diagnosed as autistic have changed dramatically since 2010, a phenomenon observed both in the UK and Sweden. The extent to which these changes indicate nuanced recognition of autism or broadening of diagnostic practice needs investigation.

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Prevalence and Characteristics of Steatotic Liver Disease in Germany - Magnetic Resonance Imaging in the German National Cohort (NAKO)

von Itter, M.-N.; Grune, E.; Nonnenmacher, T.; Rach, S.; Flis, M.; Haueise, T.; Weiss, J.; Brenner, H.; Keil, T.; Roden, M.; Schulze, M. B.; Schulz-Menger, J. E.; Völzke, H.; Stefan, N.; Schlett, C. L.; Kauczor, H.-U.; Machann, J.; Bamberg, F.; Nattenmüller, J.; Norajitra, T.; Rospleszcz, S.

2026-06-01 endocrinology 10.64898/2026.05.29.26354407 medRxiv
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Background and Aims: Steatotic liver disease (SLD) has high clinical and public health relevance. Robust population estimates of SLD and its subcategories are challenging due to the limitations of ultrasound measurements or non-invasive scores, particularly for low-grade steatosis. We aimed to quantify SLD prevalence using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in the population-based German National Cohort (NAKO). Methods: Hepatic multi-echo Dixon MRI was performed at 5 dedicated study sites with identical setup across Germany. Liver fat (proton density fat fraction, PDFF), R2* as proxy for liver iron, and liver volume were assessed. The resulting data of N = 29'842 individuals (age range 20-72 years) were weighted by survey weights for regional representativeness, resulting in a sample of 50% women and a mean age of 45.6 years. SLD was defined as PDFF [&ge;] 5.75%, and sex-specific prevalence according to age, BMI, socioeconomic status and geographic region was calculated. Results: Overall, SLD prevalence was 21.3% in women and 35.7% in men, and the majority were metabolic dysfunction-associated (MASLD, 89.3% of all SLD cases). Prevalence increased with age in a sex-specific pattern, suggesting potential menopausal effects in women. There was a relevant prevalence of SLD in individuals with normal weight (5.3% in women, 13.2% in men) and the age group <25 years (7.5% in women, 11.9% in women). Differences in prevalence between low and high socioeconomic status were more pronounced in women (37% vs 15.8%) compared to men (45.5% vs 30.3%). Conclusions: Data underscore the high public health relevance of SLD and its subcategory MASLD. The considerable prevalence in groups historically considered low-risk, such as younger or lean individuals, emphasizes the need for raising awareness early.

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Identification of a Fractional Model for an Outbreak of the Dengue Fever

Cresson, J.; Pere, M.; Szafranska, A.

2026-05-27 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.05.26.26354120 medRxiv
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This work focuses on the global and partial identification problem for fractional differential equations. We provide a general numerical procedure based on global and local optimization algorithms with two refinements for biological systems that ensure solution positivity and homogeneous parameter units. The method is applied to a new fractional model of Dengue outbreak called the Fractional Homogeneous Nishiura (FHN) model, calibrated using data of newly infected people in Cape Verde. We show that our identification method yields a better fit between data and model solutions than previous approaches and that our FHN model captures the dynamics of Dengue more closely than existing systems.

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Two anti-phase spatial modes and a candidate spatial-persistence regime transition of SARS-CoV-2 in Japan: a 159-week prefecture-level sentinel surveillance study

Nakano, T.; Onozuka, D.; Ikeda, Y.; Washiyama, K.; Takashima, Y.

2026-05-26 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.05.24.26353972 medRxiv
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Background. On 8 May 2023 the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare reclassified COVID-19 under the Infectious Disease Control Law from a designated infectious disease (with case-by-case reporting requirements comparable to those of a Category-2 disease) to a Category-5 ("Class-5") notifiable disease, joining the same category as seasonal influenza and most other endemic respiratory infections. Under this regime, COVID-19 case counts are reported weekly from a nationwide network of sentinel medical facilities (initially approximately 5,000, reduced to approximately 3,000 following an April 2025 surveillance reform), and individual case reporting is no longer required. We aimed to characterize the spatial topology of COVID-19 epidemics under this sentinel-surveillance regime and to detect, in a data-driven manner, any structural change in epidemic dynamics over this period. Methods. We analyzed weekly per-sentinel-facility COVID-19 case counts in all 47 prefectures of Japan from 2023-W17 to 2026-W19 (159 weeks). For each week we computed the Shannon pseudo-entropy S of the prefecture-share distribution and global, local, and time-lagged Moran's I across a 92-edge contiguity-based adjacency matrix. To identify any structural change in a data-driven manner, we adopted a two-stage approach motivated by an empirical regularity established in Section 3: we first verified the wave-amplitude-invariant entropy ceiling (S_max >= 3.80 in all five pre-transition waves), then restricted change-point detection to the weeks after S(t) last attained this ceiling, applying PELT, CUSUM, and Bai-Perron sup-F within this restricted region. Seasonal structure was characterized by truncated Fourier regression with first-order autoregressive errors (Cochrane-Orcutt) over harmonic orders K = 1 to 6; between-period comparisons used moving block bootstrap as the principal inferential statistic. Results. The five epidemic waves during 2023-2025 followed a stereotyped spatial template in which S(t) traced a characteristic U-shape around each peak, with a wave-amplitude-invariant entropy ceiling reaching on average 99.4% of the theoretical maximum ln 47 (range 3.820-3.836, SD 0.006). The last week in which S(t) attained this entropy ceiling was 2025-W42. Restricting change-point detection to the 29 subsequent weeks, PELT and CUSUM localised the structural break to late 2025: PELT identified 2025-W48 (robust across penalty values >= sigma^2*ln(n) and across entropy-ceiling thresholds 3.78-3.82) and CUSUM peaked at 2025-W50 (p < 0.0001), placing the break within a two-week window centred on late November 2025. Bai-Perron sup-F peaked later at 2026-W02 (p = 0.062, with reduced power on n = 29). We adopted 2025-W48 as the principal change-point, defining 135 pre-transition weeks and 24 post-transition weeks. Two anti-phase spatial modes were identified in the pre-transition record: a summer-onset Okinawa-seeded Kyushu cascade (Mode A; annual peak epi week 26) and a winter-onset Tohoku-centred connected-cluster mode (Mode B; annual peak epi week 51), approximately 25 epi weeks out of phase. After the regime transition, this ceiling was not attained, and the spatial-persistence ratio I(tau = 8 wk)/I(0) shifted from a highly variable distribution centred near 0.27 (pre-transition, 125 weeks) to a tightly clustered distribution around 0.89 (post-transition, 24 weeks); the mean difference was 0.62 (95% bootstrap CI 0.32 to 0.90; moving block bootstrap p < 0.0001 across block lengths 1-12). The principal finding remained significant under autoregressive-augmented null models and was robust to adjacency-matrix choice, the April 2025 surveillance reform, harmonic order K = 1 to 6, and Okinawa exclusion. Conclusions. Data-driven analysis of 159 weeks of Japanese sentinel surveillance identifies a candidate spatial-persistence regime transition emerging in late November 2025, in which the spatial structure of weekly case shares persists for at least 8 weeks rather than dissipating as in pre-transition. The transition coincides with loss of the wave-amplitude-invariant entropy ceiling and with absence of the Mode A signature through the observed post-transition period. The recent uptick in Okinawa case shares (continuing through 2026-W19) leaves open whether the Mode A signature is structurally suppressed or merely deferred; observation through summer 2026 is required to distinguish a sustained shift from a transient anomaly.

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Defining a person-centered conceptual model to inform measurement of contraception's effects on the menstrual cycle

Mackenzie, A.; Smit, J.; Miric, M.; Edelman, A.; Beksinska, M.; Catano, A.; Chung, S.; Cuevas, E.; Delacerda, M.; Forbes, M.; Hoppes, E.; Ingeno, L.; Jacobson, L.; Khomo, M.; Lebetkin, E.; Majola, T.; Matos, M.; Mavundla, M.; McCaffrey, S.; Mendez, A.; Mendez, M.; Mhlaba, N.; Mosery, N.; Ndlovu, L.; Qiya, B.; Stankevitz, K.; Sullivan, A.; Zulu, B.

2026-05-30 sexual and reproductive health 10.64898/2026.05.21.26353514 medRxiv
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Objective: To address the need for improved measurement of the ways contraception impacts the baseline menstrual cycle (i.e., contraceptive-induced menstrual changes; CIMCs) by assembling an interdisciplinary, global research collective to rigorously develop a person-centered measure for CIMCs in multiple languages. As the first step, this paper reports on our conceptual model development, which is the foundation for ongoing measure development. Study design: We conducted 18 focus groups with 106 people experiencing CIMCs while using hormonal or intrauterine contraception in Durban, South Africa, Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, and Portland Oregon, United States. We used a virtual affinity mapping approach to analyze qualitative data, which was the basis of our conceptual model along with relevant theory and related models in the literature. Results: The conceptual model of experiences with CIMCs depicts the baseline menstrual cycle, including CIMCs and conceptually-linked effects and the impacts and perceptions of those CIMCs. We found key domains of changes in pain, bleeding volume, bleeding patterns, and characteristics of blood. Conclusion: Our CIMC conceptual model will inform development of a measure with evidence of validation across three language and global contexts. Adoption of a person-centered, standardized CIMC measurement across trials will improve knowledge and decision-making between methods.

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Ranked (In)direct Citation Searching in Systematic Reviews: A methodological case study

Woelfle, T.; Fucile, G.; Hirt, J.; Pena, R. C. G.; Vogt, M.; Nordhausen, T.; Ewald, H.; Appenzeller-Herzog, C.

2026-05-27 medical education 10.64898/2026.05.26.26354093 medRxiv
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Systematic Review (SR) is a prosperous study type in modern medicine and beyond. Many SR authors complement their primary database searches by supplementary techniques. Among these, citation-based techniques known as citation searching (CS) are widespread. Unranked Direct CS (UDCS) to identify directly cited and citing literature of seed references is currently most prevalent. Ranked (In)direct CS (RICS) additionally collects co-cited and co-citing literature combined with a ranking and cut-off procedure. However, RICS workflows remain non-standardized and tedious, and associated benefits unclear. This work aims to create a framework for the prospective international comparison of supplementary UDCS and RICS. To prime RICS research, we developed the open-source Co*Citation Network application and assessed parallel supplementary UDCS and RICS retrospectively in three completed SRs and prospectively in one case study. Automated RICS collected and ranked cited, citing, co-cited, and co-citing literature of seed references from OpenAlex database and applied an empirical rank cut-off to approximate the volume of UDCS results. In RICS compared to UDCS, we consistently noted higher overlap with primary database search results. Title/abstract screening in the case study showed a precision (number needed to read) of 1.8% (57) for UDCS and 2.1% (48) for RICS results. After full text screening, two additional articles were included for review, one of which was identified by UDCS and RICS, and one exclusively by UDCS. The present study indicates potential benefits of RICS for SR authors and will enable the formation of a research consortium to compare supplementary UDCS and RICS on larger scale.

8
The Inflation Reduction Act's Impact Upon Late-Stage R&D

Bowen, H. P.; O'Loughlin, G.; Schleicher, C.; Schulthess, D.

2026-05-28 health economics 10.64898/2026.05.20.26353648 medRxiv
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Background: The impact of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) upon late-stage developments has been assumed to be limited. The Congressional Budget Office's IRA analysis excluded post-approval innovation, potentially overlooking substantial economic risks to drug developers and declines in the availability of treatments in areas of high unmet medical need such as oncology. Methods: A total of 1148 secondary trials from 364 FDA-approved medicines, published from 2018 to 2025, were obtained from Biomedtracker and clinicaltrials.gov. Using fractional multinomial logit, we model the share distribution of secondary indication studies across 19 disease groups and assess the change in this distribution post-IRA. We also assessed the number of secondary treatment studies pre- vs. post-IRA using multiple linear regression. Results: After the IRA's introduction, small molecule follow-on studies in oncology exhibited a statistically significant 35% decline (R2 = .48, p < 0.014) and lead indication small molecule oncology approvals exhibited a statistically significant 27% decline (R2 = .70, p < 0.002). We also find a statistically significant 14% decline in the share of orphan oncology studies pre- vs. post-IRA (p<0.001). Research Conclusions: This study's results refute claims that the IRA would have minimal negative effects on patient access or late-stage biopharmaceutical R&D. We hope this study reinvigorates debate about the law's unintended consequences and encourages thoughtful policy solutions, as the IRA manifestly creates disincentives that negatively impact patients seeking needed new medicines, particularly those requiring cures addressing metastatic late-stage cancers.

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Sleep Disorders Modify the Age-Related Trajectory of Circadian Rest-Activity Rhythms: Evidence from NHANES 2011--2012 Wrist Actigraphy

Yin, L.; Lee, C. W.; Wong, A.

2026-06-01 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.05.28.26354369 medRxiv
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Background: Circadian rest-activity rhythms weaken with age, but whether sleep disorders modify this trajectory is unknown. Methods: We analyzed wrist accelerometry data from 4,386 participants aged 6-80 years in the 2011-2012 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Circadian features were extracted using cosinor analysis and nonparametric methods; a Circadian Disruption Index (CDI) was constructed from five standardized components. Survey-weighted regression with natural cubic splines and Wald F-tests tested age-by-sleep-disorder interactions using Taylor series linearization for variance estimation. Results: Doctor-diagnosed sleep disorder (N = 360, 8.2%) was associated with significantly different age-related trajectories of amplitude (F(2,17) = 11.24, p = 0.0008) and MESOR (F(2,17) = 8.22, p = 0.0032), both surviving Bonferroni correction (p < 0.006). CDI was higher in those with a sleep disorder (0.290 vs. 0.131, p < 0.001) and was independently associated with higher BMI (beta = 1.33 kg/m2, p < 0.001), higher HbA1c (beta = 0.089%, p = 0.004), greater diabetes prevalence (beta = 3.8 percentage points, p < 0.001), and worse depressive symptoms (beta = 0.43 PHQ-9 points, p = 0.020). Sensitivity analyses using a broader sleep problem exposure did not replicate these interactions. Conclusions: Doctor-diagnosed sleep disorders are associated with an altered age-related decline in circadian amplitude and mean activity level. CDI was independently linked to cardiometabolic and depressive outcomes, supporting a mechanistic connection between clinically significant sleep pathology and circadian disruption across the lifespan.

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Can Large Language Models Diagnose Primary Immunodeficiency from Patient-Described Symptoms?

Reteig, L. C.; Woloshin, S.; Maglione, P. J.; Farmer, J. R.; Ong, M.-S.

2026-05-27 allergy and immunology 10.64898/2026.05.26.26353818 medRxiv
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Patients with primary immunodeficiency (PID) often face prolonged diagnostic delays and may increasingly turn to large language models (LLMs) to interpret their symptoms during this period. We evaluated whether an LLM could recognize PID from symptom descriptions derived from interviews with 21 PID patients. In a prior study, we showed that GPT-4o identified PID in 96% of cases when prompted with physician-written patient histories (Rider et al., JACI, 2024). Here, when prompted with symptom descriptions in patients' own words, GPT-5 identified PID in only 7 cases (33%), although it more broadly suggested immune system issues in 18 cases (81%). The gap between these findings indicates that LLMs are sensitive to the language and framing of symptom descriptions, performing substantially worse when patients describe their own symptoms in everyday language than when clinicians summarize patient histories in structured medical terms. This study underscores the need to carefully evaluate how LLMs are used in patient-facing applications.

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Effects of Starting and Stopping Combined Oral Contraceptives on Markers of Ovarian Reserve

Bernig, U.; Kördel, M.; Sundström-Poromaa, I.; Kroemer, N. B.; Henes, M.

2026-06-01 sexual and reproductive health 10.64898/2026.05.29.26354411 medRxiv
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Objective To examine the effects of combined oral contraceptive (OC) use on clinical markers of ovarian reserve by comparing Anti-Muellerian Hormone (AMH), antral follicle count (AFC), and ovarian volume (OV) before and after starting or stopping OC. Methods This analysis is based on data from a prospective cohort study conducted at the University Hospital Tubingen, Germany, as part of the IRTG-2804 project. A total of 54 healthy women were included and categorized into three groups based on their OC use status: OC starters (n = 12), stoppers (n = 16), and long-term OC-users (n = 26). Each participant underwent a transvaginal ultrasound (including AFC and OV) and serum sampling (including AMH) at two time points (S1 and S2), three to six months apart. OC starters were assessed first during the early follicular phase (day 1-7) and then during active OC intake (day 8-21), while stoppers were assessed in the reverse order. Long-term users were assessed twice during active OC intake. Results OC stoppers showed significant within-group increases in all ovarian reserve markers, including AMH ({Delta} = 2.57 ng/mL, p < .001), AFC ({Delta} = 3.88, p = .004), and OV, which almost doubled (1.94-fold increase; 95% CI [1.35, 2.80], p < .001). In contrast, OC starters exhibited a significant decline in AMH ({Delta} = -1.25 ng/mL, p = .013), but no changes in AFC or OV. No significant longitudinal changes were observed among long-term OC users. Conclusion AMH levels decrease after starting OC use whereas AFC and OV are not affected. In contrast, AMH, AFC, and OV recover within three to six months after stopping OC, suggesting a reversible suppression of ovarian reserve markers during OC use. These findings are clinically relevant for fertility counseling and for the interpretation of ovarian reserve markers in women using hormonal contraception.

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Use of large language models by academic hospitalists: results of a multicenter survey

Bressman, E.; Auerbach, A.; Keniston, A.; Jens, C.; Ranji, S.

2026-05-29 health systems and quality improvement 10.64898/2026.05.27.26353610 medRxiv
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Introduction: The use of artificial intelligence (AI) by clinicians has increased rapidly in recent years, with large language models (LLMs) emerging as tools that can equal clinician diagnostic performance in simulated settings. However, limited data exist regarding physicians use of LLMs in real-world clinical practice. This study aimed to evaluate the frequency of LLM use among practicing hospitalists, identify which LLMs are most commonly utilized, and assess hospitalists' perceptions of the benefits and limitations of LLM use in clinical care. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional survey study of academic hospital medicine faculty across 8 institutions within the Hospital Medicine Reengineering Network (HOMERuN), a collaborative research consortium. Eligible participants included hospitalists practicing within participating HOMERuN sites during the study period. The survey assessed the frequency of LLM use, types of LLMs used, clinical applications, and physician perceptions regarding usefulness, efficiency, and concerns associated with LLM adoption. Results: 170 respondents (67.1%) reported ever using an LLM in clinical practice. Among LLM users, OpenEvidence was the most used tool (88.9%), followed by ChatGPT (58.5%), Google Gemini (26.9%), and Microsoft Copilot (20.5%). Only a minority of hospitalists reported using LLMs daily while seeing patients. The most common use cases of LLMs were answering diagnostic (77.1%) and management (77.6%) questions. A majority also reported using LLMs to identify or summarize primary literature (60.0%). Lack of trust in outputs (49.8%), uncertainty around institutional policies (48.6%), and lack of access to secure applications (43.1%) were cited as the most frequent barriers to using LLMs in practice. Discussion: The use of LLMs in clinical practice is already widespread, though regular or daily use is not yet typical. Concerns regarding reliability, patient privacy, and safe integration into clinical workflows remain significant barriers to broader adoption. The responsible implementation of LLMs in hospital medicine will require addressing these barriers.

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Ultrarare Variants in Genes Involved in Intestinal Microbiota and Permeability Homeostasis in Youth with Developmental and Neuropsychiatric Deteriorations

Frankovich, J.; Dubin, R. A.; Natarajan, C.; Schlenk, N.; Pedrosa, E.; Stolte, E.; Rice, N.; Soorajkumar, A.; Vettiatil, D.; van der Spek, P. J.; Cunningham, J. L.; Lachman, H. M.

2026-05-30 genetic and genomic medicine 10.64898/2026.05.29.26353976 medRxiv
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Abnormalities in the gut microbiome, intestinal permeability, and the gut-immune-brain axis are increasingly linked to neuropsychiatric disorders, neurodegenerative disorders, inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), and other immunologic/autoimmune conditions. We investigated these phenomena in 128 youth with Pediatric Acute-Onset Neuropsychiatric Syndrome (PANS) and individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and other neurodevelopmental disorders (NDD) characterized by profound, unexplained deteriorations/regressions in developmental, neuropsychiatric, and behavioral functioning. Previous studies we have carried out showed that immune dysregulation and DNA damage response (DDR) gene mutations are implicated in a subset of these patients. The current study examines the role of genetic variants affecting intestinal homeostasis. We report a series of patients exhibiting both neuropsychiatric deterioration and gastrointestinal symptoms. Genetic analysis identified ultrarare (minor allele frequency < 0.001) pathogenic or likely pathogenic variants in eight genes primarily expressed in the intestines and associated with IBD, dysbiosis, or intestinal permeability. Across thirteen patients, mutations were identified in DUOX2 (n=4), SLC10A2 (n=2), UNC45A, TTC7A, LGALS4, SI, CCR9, MEP1B, and BACH2. While these findings suggest a potential role for genetic variants governing intestinal homeostasis in these cases of neuropsychiatric decline, their presence in only a small subgroup necessitates larger, prospective cohorts to determine whether these variants are statistically significant and play a definitive role in the pathogenesis of these disorders.

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Peripheral immune profiles separate disease activity stages in Birdshot Uveitis

Pohlmann-Krappitz, D.; Kaeferstein, I.; Kruse, B.; Winterhalter, S.; Thiel, A.; Pleyer, U.; Braun, J.

2026-05-30 ophthalmology 10.64898/2026.05.27.26354201 medRxiv
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Purpose: To characterize peripheral immune alterations in treated birdshot uveitis (BU) patients using high-dimensional mass cytometry and multiplex serology. Design: Cohort study. Subjects: 36 BU patients on immunomodulatory treatment (IMT) and 31 healthy controls (HCs). Methods: Detailed ophthalmologic examinations were performed, and peripheral blood and serum samples were collected for immune profiling using mass cytometry and multiplex cytokine analysis. Main Outcome Measures: Imaging-based indicators of ocular inflammation; peripheral immune cell frequencies; serum cytokine levels. Results: Compared to HCs, BU patients showed increased frequencies of Th17, CD146+ T cells, intermediate effector/central memory T cells co-expressing CXCR3 and CCR4, CD56dim NK cells and elevated IL-18 levels. Patients were clinically stratified by an expert ophthalmologist into three disease activity groups: Inactive, Active (comprising combinations of surface retina, deep retina and choroid activity) and Burned-out. Inactive patients harbored more quiescent effector T cells, e.g. Tim-3+ Tc17-Tc22 intermediates and more CD8+ TSCM, potentially representing a resting pool of autoimmune T cells. Active patients exhibited increased in vivo activation of relevant T cells, with stronger HLA-DR, CD38 or PD-1 expression, and highest levels of CD56dim NK cells. Immune profiles were also linked to treatment subgroups: csDMARDs (conventional synthetic disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs) were associated with higher CD56bright NK frequencies, and absence of therapy showed elevated PD-1/SLAMF7 Tc17+1 and PD-1CD57 CD8 TEMRA cells. IL-6R blockade (tocilizumab) resulted in loss of IL-6R T-cells accompanied by increased SLAMF7 T cells, due to epitope masking. Conclusions: Peripheral CyTOF profiling anchored to thorough clinical stratification revealed disease activity-associated immune signatures and therapy-associated imprints in BU.

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Neonatal EEG network activity associates with 2-year neurodevelopment after perinatal asphyxia

Syvalahti, T.; Tokariev, M.; Nevalainen, P.; Tuiskula, A.; Metsaranta, M.; Haataja, L.; Vanhatalo, S.; Tokariev, A.

2026-05-27 pediatrics 10.64898/2026.05.26.26354098 medRxiv
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Abstract Background Prediction of long-term neurodevelopmental outcomes remains challenging after perinatal asphyxia. Here, we studied whether computational metrics of brain function derived from neonatal EEG are associated with long-term neurodevelopment in infants with perinatal asphyxia. Methods Total of 36 term-born infants with perinatal asphyxia with or without hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy were studied with neonatal multichannel electroencephalography (EEG). We computed local EEG amplitudes and phase-amplitude coupling (PAC), as well as large-scale functional cortical networks estimated using amplitude-amplitude correlations (AAC) and phase-phase correlations (PPC). These EEG-derived markers were tested for associations with neurodevelopmental outcomes at two years, assessed using the Griffiths Scales of Child Development, 3rd edition (GMDS-III). Results EEG amplitudes showed positive associations with GMDS-III Foundations of Learning and General Development scores across most electrodes during quiet sleep, with the strongest effects observed at frontal and central regions (r = 0.44-0.66). PAC showed negative associations with the same scores mainly over parietal and temporal regions (r = -0.45 to -0.55). Cortical AAC networks demonstrated the most robust and widespread negative associations in all frequency bands during quiet sleep (r = -0.47 to -0.54), with 70-72% of connections significant in high delta frequency. In turn, PPC networks showed frequency-selective and more spatially constrained negative associations during quiet sleep (r = -0.48 to -0.53), involving 5-12% of the network. Conclusions Both local and network-based metrics in the newborn brain show significant association with neurodevelopmental outcome at 2 years after perinatal asphyxia.

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Establishing a framework for human dose prediction in anti-tuberculosis drug development

Patel, A.; Li, A. T.; Solans, B.; Savic, R.

2026-05-28 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.05.26.26354063 medRxiv
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Rationale: Efficacious dose selection for anti-tuberculosis drugs has traditionally relied on achieving plasma exposures above the minimum inhibitory concentration, but this approach has not consistently aligned with clinical outcomes. Objectives: We sought to identify early pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic targets most predictive of clinical efficacious dose. Methods: We conducted a back-translational, pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic simulation-based analysis of 15 anti-tuberculosis drugs. Using pharmacokinetic data from multiple biological matrices and a range of pharmacodynamic metrics, we established candidate exposure-response targets for attainment. We systematically evaluated the predictive accuracy of each target pair against established clinical doses to formulate a decision-making framework linking key drug properties to the most predictive targets. Measurements and Main Results: Depending on the target used, projected clinical doses varied widely - both within and across compounds - highlighting the importance of target selection for dose projection and go/no-go decisions. In general, targeting cellular lesion-level drug exposures relative to in vivo preclinical potency provided an effective approach for early dose selection. However, for highly penetrating drugs, targeting site-of-action therapeutic exposures in the caseum was more predictive of clinical dose. Based on these findings, we developed a preliminary dose prediction tool that enables drug developers to estimate clinically relevant dose ranges of compounds using in vitro and early in vivo data. Conclusions: This work establishes and validates a simple, evidence-based framework to standardize early translational decision-making on dose selection of anti-tuberculosis candidates in development.

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Health Literacy and Lifestyle Scores Among A Small but Diverse Group of Older Asian Adults Who Attended Community Health Events in Los Angeles

Zhang, E.; Tran, T.; Shun, K.; Tran, D.; Tsai, A.; Kwang, E.; DerSarkissian, M.; Kuo, T.

2026-05-29 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.05.27.26354181 medRxiv
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The Asian population in Los Angeles is among the largest and most heterogeneous in the U.S. This is true culturally and health-wise. Older Asians have differing risks for cardiovascular and cardiometabolic disease, depending on their ethnicity, health literacy, and lifestyle choices. This pilot examines several of these factors in a small but diverse group of older Asian adults who attended community health events from 2024-2025. Self-reported and biometric data were collected at five such events hosted by the Asian Pacific Health Corps at UCLA. The pilot generated health literacy and lifestyle (HLL) scores for all participating attendees and explored how they relate to their socio-demographics, healthcare habits, and predictions of their own health data. Overall, there were significantly more females than males with higher HLL scores (p = 0.027). College education (p = 0.028) and "normal" ranges for biometric data (e.g., blood pressure, BMI, blood glucose, cholesterol) were related to higher median HLL scores. With a few exceptions, fewer than 50% accurately predicted their biometric numbers regardless of HLL scores, suggesting a disconnect between perception and reality, and that better provider-patient communication may help foster greater patient understanding about their chronic conditions. These HLL score distributions indicate that educational attainment, better awareness of one's health, and high health literacy are individual factors that may influence older Asians' understanding and potential approach to managing their health conditions.

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Functionally informed annotation influences pathway-specific polygenic risk and disease inference in Alzheimer's disease

Bazemore, K.; Iqbal, T.; Kuzma, A. B.; Grant, S. F. A.; Schellenberg, G. D.; Wang, L.-S.; Chesi, A.; Jin, J.; Naj, A. C.

2026-05-26 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.05.25.26353905 medRxiv
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Pathway-specific polygenic risk scores (pathway-PRS) measure aggregate genetic risk across single nucleotide variants (SNVs) annotated to genes in a pathway of interest. In most applications, SNV-to-gene annotation is based on SNV position with respect to gene boundaries. This approach is ill-suited for incorporating non-coding SNVs, which can regulate gene expression over long distances and represent a large proportion of risk variants for Alzheimer's disease (AD). Here, we compare the performance of AD pathway-PRS across SNV-to-gene annotation strategies that integrate varying levels of functional genomic data, including adult brain chromatin interaction and expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) data. In the UK Biobank (n=328,526), including AD cases defined by ICD-9/10 codes (n=3,043) and by family history of AD/dementia (n=38,589), we show that the annotation strategy integrating chromatin interaction and eQTL data consistently improves pathway-PRS performance. We replicate this finding in independent data from the Alzheimer's Disease Genetics Consortium (n=3,370). We further find that pathway-PRS associations with AD vary by annotation strategy and that power to detect sex-dependent and age-at-onset associations is increased with integrative annotation. Together, these findings support the use of functionally informed SNV-to-gene annotation for pathway-PRS construction and highlight the importance of applying multiple annotation strategies for robust inference.

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Grounding Language Models in Behavioral Science to Scale Physical Activity Interventions for Hispanic/Latinx Populations

Mantena, S. D.; Johnson, A.; Schuetz, N.; Tolas, A.; Montalvo, S.; Delgado-SanMartin, J.; Ramirez Posada, M.; Du, L.; Zhang, S.; Huynh, A. D.; Oppezzo, M.; King, A. C.; Schmiedmayer, P.; Lawrie, A.; Rodriguez, F.; Ashley, E.; Kim, D. S.

2026-05-28 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.05.26.26354165 medRxiv
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Objective: Hispanic/Latinx populations in the U.S. experience higher rates of chronic disease linked to physical inactivity, yet digital health interventions remain largely inaccessible to more than 16 million Hispanic/Latinx adults with limited English proficiency. While large language models (LLMs) offer scalable personalization, their use in non-English behavioral coaching is unexplored. This study introduces MHC-Coach-ES, a Spanish-language LLM fine-tuned on the Transtheoretical Model (TTM) of behavior change. Materials and Methods: We fine-tuned Llama 3-70B-Instruct using a two-stage pipeline. First, the model was adapted to Spanish health and motivational language using a 2.21-million-token corpus. Second, it was instruction-tuned on 3,268 translated human written messages to align the model with the Transtheoretical Model (TTM) of Behavioral Change. We compared MHC-Coach-ES with Llama 3-70B-Instruct and translated human-expert messages using a forced-choice preference survey (N = 77) and blinded expert review (N = 2). Results: Spanish-speaking participants significantly preferred MHC-Coach-ES messages over translated human-expert messages (81% preference, P<0.001). Linguistic analysis showed that MHC-Coach-ES produced more temporally anchored messages than the base model (65% vs. 20%), while maintaining readability. In blinded evaluation, clinical experts rated MHC-Coach-ES higher for alignment with Transtheoretical Model stages than human-expert messages (4.83 vs. 4.38 out of 5). The base model also outperformed translated expert messages across preference and expert ratings. Conclusions: Generative AI can operationalize behavioral science frameworks in Spanish, offering a scalable approach to reducing health disparities. The strong performance of both MHC-Coach-ES and the base model highlights the promise of generative and personalized approaches over translation-based localization for theory-driven behavioral interventions.

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AI Adoption for NCDs in Kenya: A Qualitative Study

Rayo, J.; Cushny, W.; Mwangi, M.; Wanyee, S.; Linguraru, M. G.; Nyaga, N.; Koros, H.; Bosire, M.; Obuya, M.; Ngaruiya, C.

2026-05-27 public and global health 10.64898/2026.05.26.26354008 medRxiv
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Background: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) represent a critical public health challenge in Kenya, responsible for over 50% of inpatient admissions and 40% of deaths. While digital health tools and artificial intelligence offer promising ways to improve prevention, diagnosis, and management, little is known about how these tools are perceived and used in practice. There is limited research exploring the views and lived experiences of young people in Kenya, who are a strategic priority for NCD prevention because behavioral risk factors are established in this window, and for Community Health Providers (CHPs) who provide health services within the community. This study aims to address this gap by examining the perspectives of the burden of non-communicable diseases and the potential role of digital health technologies, including artificial intelligence, for preventing and managing these conditions in these specific populations. Methods: A qualitative research design using focus group discussions (FGDs) was employed in Nairobi (urban) and Busia (rural) counties between March and July 2024. Eight FGDs were conducted with 60 participants purposively sampled from three stakeholder groups: community health promoters (CHPs), healthcare workers (HCWs), and youth aged 18-35 years. A semi-structured guide, co-developed with a Community Advisory Board, explored beliefs about NCDs, health-seeking behaviors, lifestyle practices, and attitudes toward digital health and AI. Audio recordings were transcribed verbatim, translated where necessary, and analyzed thematically using grounded theory principles on NVivo software (v12). Results: Six consolidated themes emerged: (1) understanding of NCDs and perceived risk; (2) barriers to NCD prevention and care; (3) the role of CHPs; (4) adoption of AI tools for NCD management; (5) trust, ethics and access concerns; and (6) community-driven recommendations for AI integration. Significant barriers including stigma, economic constraints, and barriers to care were documented alongside enthusiasm for AI tools among youth and CHPs in both urban and rural areas. Conclusion: This study shows that AI tools are being used for NCD prevention and management through spontaneous community adoption. However, it emphasizes the need for culturally relevant, equitable, and community-driven solutions. Effective scaling requires the identification and bridging of digital literacy gaps, the establishment of affordable infrastructure, the protection of data privacy, and the integration of artificial intelligence tools into existing community health frameworks. This process should involve the collaboration of trusted intermediaries, such as CHPs and community leaders, to ensure successful outcomes. Future initiatives should prioritize participatory design, policy frameworks for ethical governance, and targeted capacity building to enhance acceptance and sustainability of digital health innovations in low- and middle-income country settings.